The world`s population is projected to continue growing for the next 50 to 60 years, peaking at approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080

                                  ASSIGNMENT BRIEF                                  

Critical thinking is the ability to question what we read, hear and/or see. In all academic disciplines, there are differences of opinion, conflicting evidence and uncertainty and a key skill in higher education is the ability to assess the evidence and arguments presented by others. This involves researching the topic, analysing the arguments given by different researchers in the field, and weighing up the evidence so that you can form your own understanding and conclusions about whose point of view you agree with and why.

 ASSESSMENT TASKS                                                                                                                                      

There are TWO assignments for this module:

Assignment 1 – (Case Study) 2000 words +/- 10%

Total Weighting: 50%

Intended Learning Outcomes: 1 and 4.

Assignment 2 – (Case Study) 2000 words +/- 10%

Total Weighting: 50%

Intended Learning Outcomes: 2 and 3.

ASSIGNMENT 1 – CASE STUDY                                                                                                                       

Read the article below and compile a Case Study Analysis Report addressing the assignment tasks that follow.

Source: United Nations (2024) Global Issues: Population. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/global- issues/population (Accessed: 20 August 2025).

Global Issues: Population 

1.Our growing population

The world`s population is projected to continue growing for the next 50 to 60 years, peaking at approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080. After reaching this peak, it is expected to gradually decline to around 10.2 billion by the century`s end. Currently, one in four people lives in a country where the population has already peaked. 

Fertility rates are declining, with women bearing, on average, one child less fewer than in 1990, resulting in a global fertility rate of 2.3 live births per woman as of 2024. Life expectancy is on the rise again after the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 73.3 years in 2024, with projections of 77.4 years by 2054. Notably, by 2080, the number of individuals aged 65 and older is expected to surpass that of children under 18, and by the mid-2030s, those aged 80 and over will outnumber infants. Countries facing demographic aging may need to leverage technology to enhance productivity and create lifelong learning opportunities, supporting multigenerational workforces and extending working lives as needed. 

Day of Eight Billion

On 15 November 2022, the world’s population reached 8 billion people, a milestone in human development. While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years—until 2037— for it to reach 9 billion, a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing. Yet levels of fertility remain high in some countries. Countries with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. Global population growth has therefore over time become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.

The world in 2100

While there is some uncertainty around the future size of the world’s population, the estimated likelihood that it will peak within the current century is 80 per cent, with the peak likely to occur sometime between the mid-2060s and 2100. The size of world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller – or about 700 million people fewer – than anticipated a decade ago.

The peak in the projected size of the global population is due to several factors including lower-than- expected levels of fertility observed in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China, and slightly faster-than-anticipated fertility declines in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa. China (1.4 billion) and India (1.4 billion) remain the two most populous countries in the world.

Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas through 2054 and in 62 through 2100, including Australia, Canada and the United States of America.

Africa: fastest growing continent

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to see a significant population increase, with projections showing a 79% rise to 2.2 billion by 2054. By the end of the century, the population could reach 3.3 billion, accounting for more than one-fifth of the global increase. Nine countries, including Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Niger, are likely to double in size between 2024 and 2054. As a result, the rankings of the most populous countries may shift, with Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo eventually surpassing the USA, and the United Republic of Tanzania potentially entering the top ten largest countries by the century`s end.

Shrinking population in Europe and China

Fertility in all European countries is now below the level required for full replacement of the population in the long run (around 2.1 children per woman), and in the majority of cases, fertility has been below the replacement level for several decades.

It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world’s second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million), followed by Japan and the Russian Federation (21 and 10 million, respectively). Due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s.

Factors influencing the population growth

·Fertility rates

Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility will take. According to the World Population Prospects (2024 Revision), the global fertility rate stands at 2.25 live births per woman, one child fewer than a generation ago. By the late 2040s, the global fertility rate is projected to decline to 2.1.

·Increasing longevity

Globally, life expectancy at birth is expected to rise from 72.8 years in 2019 to 77.2 years in 2050. In 2021, life expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7 years behind the global average.

Global life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054.

·International migration

The United Nations system has long been involved in addressing these complex and interrelated issues – notably, through the work of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and the UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

UN Population Division

The UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs pulls together information on such issues as international migration and development, urbanization, world population prospects and policies, and marriage and fertility statistics. It supports UN bodies such as the Commission on Population and Development, and supports implementation of the Programme of Action adopted by the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (IPCD).

The Population Division prepares the official United Nations demographic estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world, helps States build capacity to formulate population policies, and enhances coordination of related UN system activities through its participation in the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities.

UN Population Fund

The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) started operations in 1969 to assume a leading role within the UN system in promoting population programmes, based on the human right of individuals and couples to freely determine the size of their families. At the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994), its mandate was fleshed out in greater detail, to give more emphasis to the gender and human rights dimensions of population issues, and UNFPA was given the lead role in helping countries carry out the Conference’s Programme of Action. UNFPA now works in the areas of sexual and reproductive health, human rights and gender equality, population and development and has programmes for youth.

On the issue of population, the United Nations has held three conferences, two special sessions of the General Assembly and a summit in 2019.

World Population Day is observed annually on 11 July. It marks the date, in 1987, when the world’s population hit the 5 billion mark.

Sources:

• UN Population Fund (UNFPA)
• UN Population Division
• World Development Prospects 2024
• World Population Day
• UN population conferences
• World Population Dashboar

Assignment Task:

Undertake and present a relevant Case Study Analysis Report covering the following tasks:

1. In your introduction, demonstrate an understanding of Critical Thinking Skills by explaining what it is and the purpose of its application to the above article and other academic literature. [20 Marks]
2. Use your understanding of Critical thinking skills to examine the claims made in the above article backed by additional research and your understanding of the topic. [40 Marks]
3. Using your acquired Critical Thinking Skills and understanding of the topic backed by additional research, evaluate the ideas expressed in the above article. [40 Marks]

Read the article below and compile a Case Study Analysis Report addressing the assignment tasks that follow.

Source: United Nations (2024) Global Issues: Ending Poverty. Available at: Ending Poverty | United Nations (Accessed: 20 August 2025).

Global Issues: Ending Poverty

Can you imagine how challenging daily life would be if you had to survive on less than $2.15 a day? For nearly 700 million people living in extreme poverty worldwide, this is a harsh reality. Most of them—two-thirds

of the global population—reside in Sub-Saharan Africa. When considering all fragile and conflict-affected countries, that figure rises to three-quarters of those living in extreme poverty.

A pause in economic progress amidst low growth, the setbacks of COVID-19, and a heightened sense of fragility all contribute to this current situation. 

1.What is Poverty?

Poverty entails more than the lack of income and productive resources to ensure sustainable livelihoods. Its manifestations include hunger and malnutrition, limited access to education and other basic services, social discrimination and exclusion, as well as the lack of participation in decision-making. In 2015, more than 736 million people lived below the international poverty line. Around 10 per cent of the world population (pre-pandemic) was living in extreme poverty and struggling to fulfil the most basic needs like health, education, and access to water and sanitation, to name a few. There were 122 women aged 25 to 34 living in poverty for every 100 men of the same age group, and more than 160 million children were at risk of continuing to live in extreme poverty by 2030.

2.The long shadow of poverty cast by COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an increase in the number of people living in extreme poverty, for the first time in a generation. Progress in important areas, such as childhood vaccination and income equality between countries has been reversed, which has not happened in the past three decades. If the current trend continues, it is projected that by 2030, a shocking 622 million people will still be living in extreme poverty, and 84 million children will not be able to attend school. It is estimated that it will take almost 300 years to eliminate discriminatory laws, end child marriage and close gender gaps in legal protection. In 2020, with 71 million more people living in extreme poverty than the year before, the COVID- 19 crisis caused the biggest setback in global poverty reduction in decades.

In 2020, with 71 million more people living in extreme poverty than the year before, the COVID-19 crisis caused the biggest setback in global poverty reduction in decades. In April 2020, the United Nations issued a framework for the immediate socio-economic response to COVID-19 and created the Secretary-General`s UN COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund 

From 1990 to 2014, the world made remarkable progress in reducing extreme poverty, with over one billion people moving out of that condition. The global poverty rate decreased by an average of 1.1 percentage points each year, from 37.8 percent to 11.2 percent in 2014. However, between 2014 and 2019, the pace of poverty reduction slowed to 0.6 percentage points per year, which is the slowest rate seen in the past three decades. Within the 24-year period, most of the poverty reduction was observed in East Asia and the Pacific, as well as South Asia.

3.Poverty facts and figures

• According to the most recent estimates, in 2024 almost 700 million people around the world were subsisting on less than $2.15 per day.
• The share of the world’s workers living in extreme poverty fell by half over the last decade: from

14.3 per cent in 2010 to 7.1 per cent in 2019. However, in 2020 it rose for the first time in two decades after the COVID-19 pandemic.

• It is projected that the global goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 will not be achieved, with more than 600 million people still living in extreme poverty.
• One out of six children lives in extreme poverty. Between 2013 and 2022, the number of children living on less than US$2.15 a day decreased from 383 million to 333 million, but the economic impact of COVID-19 led to three lost years of progress.
• In 2024, for the first time, more than half the world`s population (52.4 percent) has some form of social protection, but 3.8 billion people are still not protected at all, and many more are not adequately protected.

4.Poverty and the Sustainable Development Goals

Ending poverty in all its forms is the first of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The SDGs’ main reference to combatting poverty is made in target 1.A: “Ensure significant mobilization of resources from a variety of sources, including through enhanced development cooperation, in order to provide adequate and predictable means for developing countries, in particular least developed countries, to implement programmes and policies to end poverty in all its dimensions.”

The SDGs also aim to create sound policy frameworks at national and regional levels, based on pro-poor and gender-sensitive development strategies to ensure that by 2030 all men and women have equal rights to economic resources, as well as access to basic services, ownership and control over land and other forms of property, inheritance, natural resources, appropriate new technology and financial services, including microfinance. 

5.Global Action

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development promises to leave no one behind and to reach those furthest behind first. Meeting this ambitious development agenda requires visionary policies for sustainable, inclusive, sustained and equitable economic growth, supported by full employment and decent work for all, social integration, declining inequality, rising productivity and a favorable environment. In the 2030 Agenda, Goal 1 recognizes that ending poverty in all its forms everywhere is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an indispensable requirement for sustainable development.

While progress in eradicating extreme poverty has been incremental and widespread, the persistence of poverty, including extreme poverty remains a major concern in Africa, the least developed countries, small island developing States, in some middle-income countries, and countries in situations of conflict and post- conflict countries. In light of these concerns, the General Assembly, at its seventy-second session, decided to proclaim the Third United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty (2018–2027). The objective of the Third Decade is to maintain the momentum generated by the implementation of the Second United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty (2008-2017) towards poverty eradication. Further, the 3rd Decade is also expected to support, in an efficient and coordinated manner, the internationally agreed development goals related to poverty eradication, including the Sustainable Development Goals.

6.Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)

In 1995, the World Summit for Social Development held in Copenhagen, identified three core issues: poverty eradication, employment generation and social integration, in contributing to the creation of an international community that enables the building of secure, just, free and harmonious societies offering opportunities and higher standards of living for all 

Within the United Nations system, the Division for Social Policy and Development (DSPD) of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) acts as Focal Point for the United Nations Decade for the Eradication of Poverty and undertakes activities that assist and facilitate governments in more effective implementation of the commitments and policies adopted in the Copenhagen Declaration on Social Development and the further initiatives on Social Development adopted at the 24th Special session of the General Assembly.

7.A potential game-changer in accelerating SDG progress

At the 2023 SDG Summit held at the UN’s headquarters in New York, the General Assembly adopted a political declaration to accelerate action to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). The document aims to drive economic prosperity and well-being for all people while protecting the environment. In addition, it includes a commitment to financing for developing countries and supports the proposal of an SDG Stimulus of at least $500 billion annually, as well as an effective debt-relief mechanism. 

8.International Day for the Eradication of Poverty

Through resolution 47/196 adopted on 22 December 1992, the General Assembly declared 17 October as the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty.

The observance of the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty can be traced back to 17 October 1987. On that day, over a hundred thousand people gathered at the Trocadéro in Paris, where the Universal Declaration of Human Rights was signed in 1948, to honour the victims of extreme poverty, violence and hunger. They proclaimed that poverty is a violation of human rights and affirmed the need to

come together to ensure that these rights are respected. These convictions are inscribed on a commemorative stone unveiled that day. Since then, people of all backgrounds, beliefs and social origins have gathered every year on October 17th to renew their commitment and show their solidarity with the poor.

Sources:

• UN Famine Prevention and Response Coordinator
• What We Do: Promote Sustainable Development
• Sustainable Development Goal 1: No Poverty
• Department of Economic and Social Affairs
• The 2024 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
• World Bank: Understanding Poverty
• International Movement ATD Fourth World
• International Day for the Eradication of Poverty
• Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights

Assignment Task:

Perform the Case Study evaluation by providing a correct response to the following:

1. Apply an understanding of logical reasoning to analyse the arguments presented in the above article. [40 Marks]
2. Apply your acquired critical evaluation skills to evaluate the sources of information (refer to the hyperlinks provided under ‘Sources’) at the end of the above article. [40 Marks]
3. In your conclusion, comment on evidence of a systematic and rigorous process adopted by the author in producing the above article. [20 Marks]